Lies, damned lies, and statistics... iPhone edition

I'm constantly heaping praise on the iPhone. It's by far the most useful, best designed smartphone / converged mobile device I've ever used - and I've used just about every one that's been released in the last decade. It is the product which all mobile device and software platform companies currently aim to beat.But for a research vendor attempting to analyze iPhone's relative market success it is simply inexcusable to leave out Windows Mobile and Symbian. These platforms have both been around for nearly a decade, with hundreds of millions of devices sold and tens of thousands of applications available. Which is why charts like this are completely worthless.

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iPhone OS not really updated 5x more often than Windows Mobile

I hate the comparison of today's mobile industry to the PC industry of the 80's - for a variety of business and technical reasons it just ain't gonna play out the same - but Daniel's analysis is informed and thoughtful, and I don't have any real issues with his speculations about the future.

However, he does make a significant factual error that needs correcting...

Daniel writes: "Over the last two years, Apple delivered eleven updates to the iPhone OS compared to two from Microsoft, despite the fact that Apple only sold the iPhone over three fourths of that period. Over the next two years, Apple will likely ship another dozen updates while Microsoft only plans to ship one: Windows Mobile 7."

What has actually happened: Microsoft has shipped one major Windows Mobile release (6.1) since the iPhone was released last June - compared to Apple's three (1.0, 1.1, 2.0). During this same period Microsoft has also shipped at least one minor release every other month.

Since Apple began iPhone development (rumored to be at some point in 2005), Microsoft shipped at least four major releases and was also shipping at least one minor release every other month.

So the total number of releases of the two platforms over the last 2-3 years has been much more balanced then Daniel indicates. And there's no reason to think that Microsoft's Windows Mobile release periodicity will decrease going forward.

It is true that end users have not been able to install all of these Windows Mobile releases on every device, but Microsoft did ship them and did not prevent OEMs and mobile operators from making them available to end users. From an ROI perspective, it often didn't - and still doesn't - make sense for OEMs and mobile operators to do this, and for a given device many of these releases simply weren't relevant. For example, the primary purpose of some releases was to better integrate with a specfic operator's network configuration. For others it was to add support for a new display resolution.

I should know, I was on the Windows Mobile team from January 2004 until January of this year.

BTW I'm defining a major release as one that contains features that end users would consider new or significantly improved, whereas a minor release contains primarily bug fixes or features that only an OEM or mobile operator would consider significant.

iPhone 3G may cost as much as £1,350 on O2

For those of you in the UK waiting eagerly for July 11, here is a useful comparison of the total cost of ownership for the iPhone 3G on each of O2's Pay Monthly tariffs.

O2's best price for iPhone 3G is £639 over 18 months, which gets you the 8GB model with 75 minutes and 125 texts per month. If you need 3000 minutes and 500 texts, iPhone 3G will run you £1,350 over 18 months. All plans include unlimited 3G and WiFi access on O2's network.

Me? I'm still waiting to see how much the 16GB model will cost under Pay & Go with unlimited 3G and WiFi access since I primarily want it for email, Web and music. I will almost certainly go the Pay & Go route if TCO is equal or less than the cheapest Pay Monthly tariff. I'd love to just transfer my existing company-provided O2 mobile number to an iPhone tariff, but based on previous experience trying to swing similar arrangements in the US this will likely be way too much hassle if it is possible at all.

So, will Pay & Go have better TCO than Pay Monthly?

O2 briefly posted info on their site last week indicating the 16GB model would be £360 with 6 months of free WiFi access. WiFi access would then reportedly cost £10/month after that. Pricing for 3G access wasn't specified, but I'm guessing unlimited 3G access would likely cost another £10-20/month. It's also worth noting that O2 will likely make you top-up at least £10 every 30 days to retain an active account. This would put Pay & Go TCO for the 16GB model at £820-1,000 over 18 months.

If these pricing terms hold and my 3G guesstimate is accurate, the 16GB model under Pay & Go would be at least £130 more expensive than the £30/month tariff (£820 vs. £699) - and you'd have to pay £200 more up front. Unfortunate if you don't want iPhone 3G for talking or texting or if you really just hate being under contract, but not surprising since O2 and other carriers much prefer to have their customers on contract to ensure a more predictable revenue stream.

Looks like I'll be going on contract for O2 mobile number two...